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Uncategorized • December 19, 2022

Fed Watch. Anticipating interest rate hikes or reductions

by Bob Baronas

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The new expectations from the futures market are for a quarter percent rate hike in February, which should hold through March and May. Note: In the lower chart a 100.0% probability of change is a 100.0% probability the rate will rise. The current rate is 4.25%-4.50%.

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Feb 1 4.50%-4.75%
Mar 22 4.75%-5.00%
May 3 4.75%-5.00%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Feb 1 100.0%
Mar 22  70.1%
May 3  76.9%
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