Fed Watch. Anticipating interest rate hikes or reductions

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The new expectations from the futures market are for a quarter percent rate hike in February, which should hold through March and May. Note: In the lower chart a 100.0% probability of change is a 100.0% probability the rate will rise. The current rate is 4.25%-4.50%.

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:	CONSENSUS
Feb 1	4.50%-4.75%
Mar 22	4.75%-5.00%
May 3	4.75%-5.00%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:	CONSENSUS
Feb 1	100.0%
Mar 22	70.1%
May 3	76.9%